Fay B. Silverman
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200 Golden Oak Court, Ste. 100
Virginia Beach, VA 23452
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Mortgage News Daily News Feed
Posted To: MBS CommentaryFinally we come to the week we've been eyeing for nearly a month as a candidate for major changes. It's fitting that 10yr yields ended the previous week right at 2.47% which--above all others--is the poster-child for inflection points for bond markets. In fact, the last time yields were sustainably below 2.47% was more than 60 years ago. Why is this week so big? It's not any one event in particular, but rather a confluence of events and circumstances. The big-ticket items start on Wednesday with GDP and the FOMC Announcement and culminate in Friday's NFP report. Thursday adds a wild-card in the form of 'month-end' trading which can create trading motivations that exacerbate or counteract the natural momentum from events/data. An even bigger wild card could be the market...(read more)
Posted To: MBS CommentaryNext week promises to be big. Even if the events don't 'agree' with each other enough to spark a major rally or sell-off, the potential is there. Due to last week's geopolitical headlines, bond markets arguably made it down to the lower end of the rate range a bit early to set up their chairs for next week's parade of data. That created a risk that they'd wander around a bit in the meantime and possibly even find new seats. In other words, yesterday's weakness ran the risk of starting a small correction ahead of what everyone knows will be a big week in terms of data and events. This was probably a viable possibility heading into today, but bonds got help from several friends . These include a rally in European debt on weak data abroad, weakness in domestic equities...(read more)
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were sideways to marginally lower today. Many lenders released new and improved rate sheets in the afternoon in order for the average to get better than yesterday, but even then, lenders are obviously cautious ahead of next week's big-ticket events. The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate remained at 4.25% for flawless scenarios, though 4.125% is still a contender--especially among lenders who released rate sheet improvements. It's not uncommon for financial securities (like those that influence mortgage rates) to pull back and consolidate/correct after a winning streak. Yesterday's abrupt move higher threatened to stand as the beginning of just such correction heading into next week. As such, simply being sideways is a victory today! And again, the lenders that...(read more)
Posted To: MND NewsWireIt was a bad day on Wall Street Thursday for housing stocks. In no particular order Census Bureau data was released showing that new home sales had declined by 8.1 percent in June compared to May and that May's numbers weren't nearly as shiny as was first thought. ( Read More: New Home Sales Decline from Downgraded May Numbers ) Then several of the big home builders released quarterly earnings that missed analysts expectations. An already jittery stock market did not take it well. The exchange traded fund that trucks home construction fell to a two month low , losing 3.4 percent of its value as most home builder and home builder-related stocks fell. ITB was down another 0.79 percent in early trading on Friday. Both D.R. Horton and Pulte announced that their earnings fell short . Horton reported...(read more)
Posted To: MBS CommentaryFor more than a week, bond markets have flirted with a break into the best levels of the year. On several occasions 10yr yields have looked all but wed to the idea. Such a wedding would take place with a move through the 2.4's. While that's not something that was exceptionally possible until next week's big-ticket events, a crowd had gathered at the altar. In other words, most of the week's activity has taken place between 2.45 and 2.50. Yesterday's weakness caused some concern that bond markets might be getting cold feet as Treasuries rose to 2.52. That left today as a bit of a wild card that could either reinforce the cold feet or reinforce the potential to break the range. Both German Bunds and US Treasuries had a strong, simultaneous bounce off yesterday's weakest...(read more)