Todd A. Hobby
PA License #MLO-25410
NMLS # 143084
Branch NMLS # 604653
(click links above to check licenses)
3920 Market Street, Ste. 202
Camp Hill, PA 17011
Questions? Call Todd A. Hobby at 717-731-9703.
We are always available to help make sense of the market.
Mortgage News Daily News Feed
Posted To: Pipeline PressTommy LaSorda supposedly said, "I found out that it's not good to talk about my troubles: 80% of the people who hear them don't care and the other 20% are glad you're having trouble." Many mortgage banking analysts are concerned about percentages - and everyone is doing their best to not end up being a carcass by the side of the road. The smartest guys in the room are saying, "Estimate that 1Q14 mortgage volume will come in at roughly $225 billion...While the MBA mortgage applications index is down an average of roughly 5% in 1Q, it was down by closer to 25% for the period from mid-November 2013 to mid-February 2014, which should drive 1Q14 closings....decreasing earnings estimates for title insurers...modeling in a roughly 25% decline in industry mortgage volume...modeling in more modest declines...(read more)
Posted To: MBS CommentaryBond markets had a bad day. The setup for this one started as early as Tuesday, when what looked like a shift toward weakness on Monday was instead greeted with a refreshing amount of resilience. Despite the fact that the resilience was based on geopolitical risk, it may have nonetheless set us up to hope that we could hold our ground. Then, when today's Geneva talks produced news of deescalation, bond markets were quickly forced to pay back some of the panic premium they'd benefited from earlier in the week. The geopolitical story accounts for the brunt of the afternoon weakness , and perhaps some of the morning weakness. Even then, the economic data was unequivocally stronger. Jobless Claims continue hovering around territory they haven't hovered around since before the crisis...(read more)
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates moved sharply higher today on a combination of factors including strong economic data, developments in Ukraine, and prevailing market momentum. That momentum risked turning negative as soon as Monday, when rates ended their impressive 7-day rally. Rather than simply turn around and head the other direction, however, rates managed to hold mostly sideways until today. Part of the resilience had to do with Geopolitical risk swelling earlier in the week. As we noted on Tuesday , such strength only lasts as long as the risk stays elevated. "When it comes to bond market rallies that draw strength from geopolitical risk, the 'catch' is that they rely on that risk staying elevated if the gains are to persist. That means the longer Ukraine goes without breaking out into civil war, the...(read more)
Posted To: MBS CommentaryGiven the recent adherence to a sideways range in bond markets combined with today's economic data coming in stronger than expected, it's not surprising to see yields moving from a lower rung on the range-bound ladder to the next rung higher. This move was already a consideration yesterday as 10yr yields lifted off from the 2.60 resistance level. The next rung on the technical ladder is 2.68, which is where we're currently trading. Weakness was delivered in 3 installments this morning. The first came just before the open as overnight trading turned negative in the 7am hour. The stronger-than-expected Jobless Claims added insult to injury, beating expectations by 11k (304k vs 315k forecast). Bonds recovered somewhat only to get hit again by stronger Philly Fed data. MBS had fallen...(read more)
Posted To: MND NewsWireHomes with serious negative equity numbers have now declined to the lowest point in at least two years RealtyTrac said today. The company, which began tracking so-called underwater properties in the first quarter of 2012, estimates that in the first quarter of 2014 9.1 million U.S. homes had loan balances at least 25 percent higher than the properties market value or a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 125 percent. This is 17 percent of all U.S. properties with a mortgage. In the fourth quarter of 2013 RealtyTrac said there were 9.3 million properties or 19 percent of mortgaged homes that were that seriously underwater and in the first quarter 2013 there were 10.9 million or 26 percent. The recent peak in negative equity was the second quarter of 2012, when 12.8 million U.S. residential properties...(read more)